USD Index Showing MACD Weakness

Posted on 18. Feb, 2010 by Founder in Blog

The USD Index has been strong over the last couple months but recently showed a bearish MACD cross on the daily chart. From here a move down to support is highly probable.

One of the key developments to note is in Gold, which drew strong support recently and could be ahead of the turn in the USD. Nevertheless, gold will need to break resistance soon.

USD Strong Against EUR After GDP

Posted on 29. Jan, 2010 by Founder in Blog

Seems like the USD is going to show some good strength against the EUR after GDP this morning came in better than expected. Asian stocks are also broadly down as the Dollar continues to remain firm in general after Bernanke was confirmed for a second term as Fed Chairman by the Senate on 70-30 vote. The next road block for the dollar will be very close and represents long term support.

Dollar USD Continues Gains On Euro EUR

Posted on 21. Jan, 2010 by Founder in Blog

The Dollar USD continued its gains against the Euro EUR,  hitting another five-month high amid ongoing sovereign debt worries in the periphery of the euro zone and further signs the region’s recovery is losing momentum.

The dollar also received a general boost as strong economic data from China. All in all the dollar has shown huge gains which would likely be taken advantage of next week – i.e. we think a minor sell-off is coming down the line by FOREX traders.

USD Dollar 1 Week Performance Results

Posted on 20. Jan, 2010 by Founder in Blog

The USD dollar 1 week performance was great this past week as it gained strength as bond yields fell. In part that was a flight to safety, but it also reflects the perception that spending by Congress may be sharply challenged now that a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate has been lost by the Democrats – per the election of Scott Brown last night. The stronger dollar has lowered commodity prices, in tandem with concerns that policy in China may crimp demand.

On the 1 week performance against other major currencies you can see that the USD made huge relative gains.

Dollar, Yen Down On Strong US Equities

Posted on 17. Sep, 2009 by Founder in Blog

The US dollar and Japanese yen were among the weakest major currencies as US equities and FX carry trades made headway amidst broad improvements in risk appetite a day after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the US recession has probably ended. 

US economic data was fairly supportive of Bernanke’s claims, as the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4 percent in August and the annual rate edged up to -1.5 percent from -2.1 percent. The increase was due primarily to energy costs, as we saw core CPI rise only 0.1 percent during the month while the annual rate slipped to 1.4 percent from 1.5 percent, the lowest since February 2004. The news is generally in line with Federal Reserve forecasts for “subdued inflation for some time.”

Meanwhile, US industrial production results for August reflected a 0.8 percent increase, indicating that output improved for the second straight month. As we’ve seen with other manufacturing reports, the increase was due almost entirely to a jump in auto demand from the “cash for clunkers” program that ended on August 24, and it will be interesting to see if the sector will hold up as well in light of the program’s completion.

Adding to the mix, data showed that the US current-account deficit narrowed in the second quarter to an 8-year low of $98.8 billion from $104.5 billion thanks to a smaller trade deficit as both imports and exports decreased.

US Dollar Continues To Weaken – Even More

Posted on 16. Sep, 2009 by Founder in Blog

The US Dollar is weak already and getting worse right now. So what is the extent of risk appetite’s influence over the US dollar? Considering yesterday’s reaction to the far-better than expected outcome for the retail sales report (an indicator that has proven itself a market mover in the past), it would seem that the influences of investor sentiment are more pervasive than many had expected.

Even with the good news, the currency closed at its lowest level on a trade-weighted basis since September 22nd of last year. The greenback suffered a less dramatic fate against its major-counterparts. EUR/USD was the standout, reaching yet a new high for the year and subsequently eating up the spike back on December 18th that brought the initial post-financial crisis reversal to an abrupt end. In contrast, USD/JPY and GBP/USD closed positive session for the dollar while the commodity bloc maintained moderate ranges.