USD Rises After Home Sales Data – GDP
Posted on 22. Dec, 2009 by Founder in Blog
The USD was on the rise today after U.S. existing home sales in November and a lower reading of third-quarter growth in the U.S., which came as businesses trimmed their inventories overhang. Treasury yields also rose to four-month highs amid upbeat economic views and expectations that the Federal Reserve might eventually lift interest rates next year – again this is a couple months out people.
As far as GDP – the U.S. economy grew at the fastest pace in two years during the third quarter, but the revised annual growth rate of 2.2% was much slower than the 2.8% the government initially reported.
GDP Grew At 3.5% – Beat Estimates
Posted on 29. Oct, 2009 by Founder in Blog
Stock futures are rising after a better-than-expected report on the nation’s economy. GDP grew at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter after four consecutive quarterly declines. Also, the Labor Department says workers filing for jobless claims for the first time fell slightly.
Economists polled by Thomson Reuters predict GDP, the broadest measurement of the country’s economic activity, rose at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the third quarter, after four straight quarters of contraction. Growth was likely bolstered by government stimulus programs such as the Cash-for-Clunkers auto program and tax credits for first-time home buyers.
U.K. GDP Drops 0.4% – Recession Woes
Posted on 23. Oct, 2009 by Founder in Blog
U.K. GDP unexpectedly fell 0.4% between July and September as the recession extended into a record sixth straight quarter, according to preliminary data from the Office for National Statistics. The figures were significantly worse than expected, with economists on average having predicted that GDP would edge up 0.1% in the quarter. Compared to the third quarter of 2008, output was down 5.2%.
The U.K.’s recession is now the longest since quarterly records began in 1955. The economy has also contracted around 6% from its peak, surpassing the 5.8% decline in the early 1980s recession, said Charles Davis, senior economist at the Centre for Economics and Business Research.
GDP Numbers Out – Shrank At 0.7% Rate
Posted on 30. Sep, 2009 by Founder in Blog
The worst U.S. recession since the Great Depression eased more than anticipated in the second quarter, setting the stage for a recovery to take hold in the last half of 2009.
The world’s largest economy shrank at a 0.7 percent annual rate from April through June, the best performance in more than a year, revised figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. Gross domestic product contracted at a 6.4 percent pace in the first three months of 2009.
Government stimulus plans such as “cash for clunkers” and first-time homebuyer credits are giving manufacturing and housing, the two areas at the center of the economic slump, a boost this quarter. Federal Reserve policy makers are among those concerned that gains in consumer spending will not be sustained as unemployment climbs and incomes stagnate.
“It’s a much better picture than a few months ago,” Lindsey Piegza, an economist at FTN Financial in New York, said before the report. “Inventories and government programs will drive growth in the second half. We’re expecting a mild recovery as the job market is still very weak.”
The drop in GDP, the sum of all goods and services produced, was less than the 1.2 percent median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 78 economists. Estimates ranged from declines of 1 percent to 1.5 percent. The government previously calculated the pace of contraction at 1 percent last quarter.
Major S&P 500 Fibonacci Retracement
Posted on 02. Aug, 2009 by Founder in Blog
The major indexes managed to close the week with a gain but were it not for Thursday’s short squeeze it could have been a much different story. The markets shook off a GDP number on Friday that was better than the consensus but far below the whispers circulating on Wall Street. The first look at the GDP for Q2 showed a headline number of -1.02%. This was much better than the -6.43% in Q1 and better than the -1.6% consensus estimate. You would think the markets would have celebrated.
Instead the markets dipped at the open because the GDP was much lower than the +1.0% to +1.5% whisper numbers making the rounds in the pits. Also, the report also showed a revision to the Q1 number from -5.49% to -6.43% and nearly a full point worse than originally thought. So, you think that this minor -1.02% number is going to get revised down…of course it is! But, the media is so great at making believe one thing over another that most of you out there miss the underlying facts – which of course is why you read this site.
Now to the chart of the S&P 500 below:
As you can see we hit the 38% retracement level almost exactly this week on the daily chart. You can’t see it on the chart but this Fibonacci retracement series goes back to 1974! That’s more than 30 years of data building this case! Point blank, the markets are way overbought and those who remain long will get burned sooner than later. When everyone is talking ultra-bull, that’s when real traders turn bearish.
Of couse as option writers, we have no preference on the market direction because we make money regardless of the direction. Just a perk I guess!
Live Interview With Our Founder
